Research body Strand Consult’s 2013 trends for the mobile telecom sphere have revealed an uptake in consumer pricing and government broadband targets, alongside predicting bad news for telecom investors.

Elsewhere, Strand foresees a big year for Facebook as the social giant intensifies its mobile strategy; the battle between operators and OTT players will continue apace; and the patent lawsuits discussion will become much more sophisticated.

Calling 2013 “exciting, if not challenging,” Strand predicts many important trends for the next 12 months in its research note. The highlights are:

• Consumers will remain the winners with increased competition and falling prices: Strand cites Scandinavia as the trendsetters in this regard, because of its highest levels of competition, and consequent low prices, flexible business models and super-fast broadband.
• Smartphone subsidies will disappear in many countries: Linked to the previous point, customers will become less enthused to buy smartphones with increased costs, and that the problem ultimately rests with the handset manufacturers.
• 2013 will be a rude awakening for telecom investors: Calling this year “tough…with difficult decisions in the boardroom” for some investors, Strand anticipates one of two forms of consolidation in order to keep costs down; either a series of operators building an infrastructure, or merging two operators into one.
• Government broadband targets will finally have substance: Strand suggests that this year could be a tipping point in terms of broadband initiatives, and asks whether a government is brave enough to take money out of health and education programs to fund fiber and broadband instead.
• MVNOs should have a big part to play in US telecoms in 2013: Given the USA has the same number of network operators as Denmark, the US lags badly behind in service, speed and price. It’s in the FCC’s hands if it wants to put together a mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) strategy.
• Facebook will look further into monetising mobile products and services: Of course, Mark Zuckerberg’s strategy to drastically improve Facebook’s mobile presence in 2012 was evident; yet Strand’s research note states that this will be intensified this year moving to monetise mobile revenue beyond advertising.
• The value added service (VAS) market will look very dull in 2013: In contrast, the NFC and mobile payment sphere will continue to grow this year, but not with a tangible endpoint “as these solutions aren’t readily accepted in all markets”.
• The battle between OTT (over the top) players and cable companies will also carry on: calling 2012 “the year when OTT exploded on the telecom scene”, operators have a new sustained challenge to their bandwidth with services such as Netflix.

Of course, Strand Consult’s predictions – 15 in total – cover essentially the whole of the telecoms spectrum, and there are plenty of discussions and jumping off points to consider.

The OTT ecosystem is a delicate issue; recent research from Amdocs has shown that most service providers view OTT players as potential partners rather than a threat, going against perceived wisdom.

Rob Smith, writing for TelecomsTech, noted that if the recent MVNO conference in Paris was anything to go by, there is a big opportunity out there for an influx of new MNVOs in the market – so would it be prescient for America to align?

And given Juniper’s look at how the NFC market struggles due to the iPhone 5 not supporting it, is this a surprising stance from Strand over the potential of NFC?

Which of Strand Consult’s predictions do you agree with, and which – if any – do you think will be wide of the mark by 2014?