According to a report from the Canadian Centre for Cyber Security (CCCS), growing cyber threats jeopardise not only national security but also critical infrastructure that underpins society.

“The insights provided in this threat assessment are critical as we work to strengthen Canada’s security in an increasingly digital world,” says Defence Minister Bill Blair.

The report outlines the complex threat landscape that Canada faces. It highlights the growing sophistication and collaboration of both state and non-state cyber actors.

“Canada is confronting an expanding and complex cyber threat landscape with a growing cast of malicious and unpredictable state and non-state cyber threat actors,” states the assessment.

State-sponsored cyber threats

Rajiv Gupta, Head of the CCCS, said: “State adversaries are getting bolder and more aggressive. Cybercriminals driven by profit are increasingly benefiting from new illicit business models to access malicious tools and are using artificial intelligence  to enhance their capabilities.”

The report identifies the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as presenting the most sophisticated cyber threat. The PRC’s state actors are described as engaging in wide-scale cyber espionage aimed at national interests, including intellectual property theft and malign influence operations.

“The PRC conducts cyber operations against Canadian interests to serve high-level political and commercial objectives,” the report declares, adding that the PRC targets all levels of government and Canadian officials perceived as critics of the Chinese Communist Party.

Russia is another nation leveraging its cyber capabilities against Canada. Moscow’s cyber programme is reportedly part of its broader strategy to destabilise Western nations and “promote Russia’s global status and reinforce pro-Russia narratives.” Russian cyber threat actors are suspected of targeting Canadian government, military, and industry networks.

Iran also presents a growing cyber threat to Canada. The report warns of Iran’s increasing willingness to conduct disruptive cyber attacks beyond the Middle East, describing its efforts to target political activists and diaspora members in Canada through cyber surveillance and social engineering.

Cybercrime remains a significant challenge 

“Non-state actors are seizing on major global conflicts and political controversies to carry out disruptive activities,” comments Gupta.

Ransomware, in particular, stands out as the top cybercrime threat to Canadian critical infrastructure.  “Ransomware directly disrupts critical infrastructure entities’ ability to deliver critical services,” the report notes.

In 2023 alone, global ransom payments reached a record $1 billion, with Canada experiencing a 150% increase in the average ransom paid over the past two years.

The rise of the Cybercrime-as-a-Service (CaaS) model has facilitated cybercrime’s persistence and growth.

Specialised threat actors are now selling malicious tools and stolen data online, lowering the technical barriers for engaging in cyber attacks. The report highlights several notorious ransomware groups, including Lockbit, ALPHV, and CL0P—all of which significantly impact Canadian sectors, from healthcare to government.

Emerging cyber threats

The Centre’s assessment also identifies five key trends that will shape Canada’s cyber threat landscape until 2026.

Among these is the role of AI in amplifying cyberspace threats. AI technologies are reportedly enhancing the scale and precision of malicious cyber activities and improving the persuasiveness of social engineering attacks, such as phishing.

Another worrying trend is the increase in geopolitically-inspired non-state actor activities, creating unpredictability in the threat landscape. The report notes a surge in hacktivism related to geopolitical tensions, including pro-Russia non-state actors targeting Canada to influence its foreign policy.

Vendor concentration is another vulnerability cited in the report. With many organisations relying on a few large technology providers, any disruption to these services could result in widespread ramifications. The report underscores that cyber threat actors are persistently targeting dominant vendors such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google to exploit their vulnerabilities.

Responding to growing cyber threats

Despite the daunting challenges, Canada’s new National Cyber Threat Assessment offers invaluable insights to help shape national readiness and resilience.

The CCCS aims to work in collaboration with industry, government, and the public to bolster defences against these evolving cyber threats.

Moreover, Canada has allocated $917.4 million in its budget to enhance intelligence and cyber operations programmes—emphasising the government’s commitment to addressing these pressing threats.

The report urges that only through collective efforts can Canada build resilience against this new era of cyber threats.

“While our assessments describe trends that should concern anyone who reads about them, you can rest assured that the Cyber Centre remains focused on tackling these threats,” Gupta concludes.

(Image by Gerd Altmann)

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