Dell'Oro, Infonetics up forecast for 100G market

Analyst firm Dell'Oro Group has updated its Optical Transport forecast report, with several predictions that should come as welcome news for industry vendors.  The firm recently released a summary of the report findings, which is part of Dell'Oro's larger Optical Transport subscription service.

In the new forecast, Dell'Oro sees total worldwide Optical DWDM equipment revenue growing at a 12% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next 5 years, reaching $11 billion.  The front edge of that growth will be coming from 40G and 100G DWDM wavelength shipments, which Dell'Oro believes will grow at a much faster 50% CAGR.

 

“We’re projecting a very strong market for both 40 and 100 gigabit DWDM. In fact, we have raised our forecast of both 40 and 100 gigabit because the demand for high-speed interconnects continues to exceed our expectations. The adoption of 100 gigabit is occurring faster than that of 40 gigabit, driving revenues to nearly $1 billion by 2013 and $2 billion by 2015. We believe 40 gigabit will also maintain its momentum through the forecast period since it’s likely to sustain a competitive price advantage in ultra long haul spans,” said Jimmy Yu, Sr. Director of Optical Transport research at Dell’Oro Group in their press release.

 

The acceleration to 100G is being noticed by others as well.  In his recently released white paper The Fast Approaching 100G Era (pdf), Andrew Schmitt of Infonetics predicts that 100G line card revenues will significantly overtake both 10G and 40G revenues by 2014 (see below chart). 

 

 

It's all part of a predicted spending cycle that Andrew calls "the optical reboot" where service providers leverage the confluence of coherent optics, ROADMs, and OTN switching to usher in a new architecture for their optical networks.

Combined, these two projections show a 100G market that is rapidly moving from a stage of trial and test to mainstream deployment.

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